A Saudi-backed business school in Switzerland has introduced a provocative concept known as the Doomsday Clock to alert the global community about the dangers posed by “uncontrolled artificial general intelligence,” which they refer to as “god-like” AI. To visualize this, consider the absurdity of 1980s office workers promoting Excel spreadsheets as tools for creating deities through a ticking Rolex—a fitting metaphor for the current situation.
Michael Wade’s Creation
The mastermind behind this concept, Michael Wade, serves as a TONOMUS Professor of Strategy and Digital at IMD Business School in Lausanne, Switzerland, and is the Director of the TONOMUS Global Center for Digital and AI Transformation. He recently introduced the clock in an op-ed for TIME magazine. The idea of a clock counting down to midnight, once a powerful symbol from the atomic age, now feels tired, having marked its 75th anniversary.
Following the atomic bombings in Japan, several scientists involved in developing nuclear weapons founded the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to warn humanity of its impending peril. They established the Doomsday Clock as one of their primary tools for this purpose. Each year, experts from various disciplines—including nuclear weapons, climate change, and yes, artificial intelligence—gather to assess the state of global threats. The clock’s position serves as a stark indicator of humanity’s proximity to disaster. Presently, it sits at an alarming 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been.
While Wade’s initiative is separate from the esteemed Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, it introduces the AI Safety Clock. “The Clock’s current reading—29 minutes to midnight—is a measure of just how close we are to the critical tipping point where uncontrolled AGI could bring about existential risks,” Wade articulated in his TIME article. He stressed the urgency, stating, “While no catastrophic harm has happened yet, the breakneck speed of AI development and the complexities of regulation mean that all stakeholders must stay alert and engaged.”
Marketers and Nuclear Metaphors
In the bustling world of Silicon Valley, many fervent advocates of AI seem to relish the nuclear allegory. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has even likened his organization’s endeavors to the Manhattan Project, while Senator Edward J. Markey (D-MA) remarked that America’s rapid acceptance of AI mirrors Oppenheimer’s quest for the atomic bomb. Although some anxieties regarding AI may be genuine, they are ultimately part of a marketing strategy. We find ourselves within a hype cycle driven by claims that AI will deliver unmatched returns and obliterate labor costs. Proponents argue machines will soon handle every task for us, yet the reality remains that while AI is useful, it often merely shifts labor and production expenses to different sectors, hidden from the end user.
The dystopian narrative of AI reaching a level of sophistication sufficient to extinguish humanity is merely another facet of this hype. Alarmist discussions surrounding predictive modeling systems and textual calculators serve primarily to stir excitement about the technology, diverting attention from its tangible harms. At a recent Tesla event, automated bartenders served drinks—a spectacle that was likely under human control. Additionally, large language models (LLMs) consume enormous amounts of water and energy to generate responses, frequently relying on a network of human “trainers” working under poor conditions in developing nations.
These technologies have already enabled troubling real-world consequences, such as the non-consensual distribution of private images online. The more one fixates on hypothetical threats like Skynet’s possible emergence, the less one acknowledges the pressing issues at hand.
Doomsday Clock Insights and Their Significance
The Bulletin’s Doomsday Clock, while appearing opaque to some, is backed by a formidable assembly of intellects dedicated to addressing the genuine dangers posed by nuclear weapons and emerging technologies. In a recent publication, the Bulletin featured a critical piece referencing Altman’s statements, countering exaggerated claims about AI’s potential in developing new bioweapons. The article emphasized, “For all the doomsaying, there are many uncertainties in how AI will affect bioweapons and the wider biosecurity arena.”
This piece further highlighted that engaging in extreme scenarios related to AI often distracts from essential conversations. “The challenge, as it has been for more than two decades, is to avoid apathy and hyperbole about scientific and technological developments that impact biological disarmament and efforts to prevent bioweapons from falling into the hands of dangerous actors,” the Bulletin noted. They cautioned that overemphasizing fears related to AI could lead to a narrow focus that overlooks various other risks and opportunities.
Numerous articles advocating such perspectives emerge from the authors of the Doomsday Clock each year. In contrast, the AI Safety Clock lacks such rigorous scientific grounding despite its claims of monitoring relevant publications in its FAQ section.
Funding Concerns
What it does possess, however, is substantial financial support from Saudi Arabia. Wade’s affiliation with IMD Business School is made possible by funding from TONOMUS, a subsidiary of NEOM. NEOM represents Saudi Arabia’s ambitious vision of a futuristic city designed to rise from the desert, complete with extravagant promises of robot dinosaurs and flying cars. Given this context, one might be compelled to approach Wade’s assertions and the credibility of the AI Safety Clock with skepticism.
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